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October 30, 2009
October 23, 2009
October 22, 2009 Trading the Mini-Dow
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
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Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
This is the last of three discussions about the Bollinger Bands stop and reverse method. This example covers October 22, 2009. The chart below is a 5 minute chart for the mini Dow, symbol YM. This is the 5 dollar per point mini Dow futures contract. Our charts use Barchart.com data so the time shown on the chart is central time from the Chicago exchange. We like to wait until 8:30AM when the main New York market opens and the volume on the mini Dow futures contract increases. On the chart below you can see there were six trades that occurred during the main trading hours.
Trading With Stop and Reverse
The trading statistics below show theoretical prices. The exact prices you get when trading will depend on how you are able to place orders with your broker. The statistic below show there were 4 losing trades and 2 winning trades. The total for the day was a profit of 27.659 points. The profit and loss pattern was again what we would expect from a stop and reverse indicator. There were several small losses and then larger winning trades.
Stop and Reverse Stats
End
October 22, 2009
Trading the Mini-Dow on Oct., 21 2009
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
Here is a second example of the Bollinger Bands stop and reverse indicator on the 5 minute chart for the mini Dow. The mini Dow usually uses the symbol YM. The two charts below show the 5 minute charts for October 21, 2009. During this trading day, there was a large profitable trade early in the morning then a series of small losing trades and finally an other large winning trade. When calculating these trades, I did not count the first large winning trade which you can see on the chart below. I did not include this winning trade because it started before the main trading day started at 8:30am central time. When trading this stop and reverse method, I usually make my first trade of the day the first new trade after the main trading session opens in New York. The mini-Dow futures contract has much greater trading volume after the main trading session in New York opens so I normally would start my trading after that market opens and the futures volume increases. You can see on this chart the trades 1 to 10 were all small choppy trades. The second chart shows the last trade of the day.
stop and reverse trading
After making 10 small choppy trades the market again did what it usually does after making a series of small trades; it had a breakout and a large trade. This is trade 11 on the chart below. In the last hour of trading, a large drop in the market made a large winning trade. The red line with an arrow at each end marks where I listed the exit price for this trade. I used a price where the market stabilized soon after the main New York market closed as the exit price.
stop and reverse chart
Below are the trading statistics for October 21, 2009. You can see this stop and reverse indicator had a series of small losses and then one large winning trade. The large winning trade was enough to make the total for the day profitable. The most difficult aspect of trading a stop and reverse method is working through the small losing trades so you are in the market to take advantage of the large winning trades when they occur.
trading stats
End
October 21, 2009
Trading the Mini-Dow on Oct., 20 2009
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
In this post and the next two posts I will be discussing the Bolllinger Bands stop and reverse indicator on the 5 minute chart for the mini-Dow. The symbol for this is YM but some brokers use their own in house symbol so check with your broker for the correct symbol before trading. This mini Dow is worth 5 dollars per point. The chart below shows the trading day from October 20, 2009. The normal way stop and reverse systems work over the long term is that they have a series of small losses and then a large win. On the chart below, you can see this pattern. The first trade of the day was a large winning trading. This was a short trade that profited around 60 Dow points. The reset of the day saw the other part of the pattern with a series of small losing trades. In the trading statistics below, you can see that the small losing trades were almost equal to the one large winning trading. This day ended with a small loss on the day. See the trading statistic in the second picture.
mini Dow Symbol YM
Below are the trading statistics for the Bollinger Stop and Reverse indicator for October 20, 2009. You can see the first trade of the day was very large at 60.096 and then the rest of the day saw a series of small losses.
mini Dow trading
End
October 20, 2009
Interest Rate Forecast Based on The Pitchfork
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
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Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
The chart below shows the interest rate futures contract named Eurodollars. This is not the euro currency. The electronic Globex symbol for the Eurodollar is the symbol GE. This daily chart shows a MarketWarrior “Super-Pitchfork” added to the chart. The Pitchfork requires 3 points to draw. The points are lettered A, B and C. The MarketWarrior Super-Pitchfork includes a “Pivot Zone”. On the chart below, the Pivot Zone is the purple box that starts from the letter C. The price should return to the Pitchfork Median Line before the end of the Pivot Zone. On this chart I have drawn 3 zig zag arrows that show the approximate location where I expect the price of the Eurodollar futures contract to return to the Median Line. This target price is approximately 97.55 in late November 2009.
Forecast based on the Super-Pitchfork
End
October 19, 2009
Corn Daily Cycles and Forecast
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
This year in 2009, the corn market has made a traditional seasonal pattern with a top in the summer during the growing season and and bottom around harvest time. The top came in June 2009 and the bottom came in September. I have set up the MarketWarrior indicator “Dewey Cycle (Lock)” to track the movements of this pattern as closely as possible. The first chart below is a daily chart for corn futures covering July 2008 through June 2009.
Corn Daily Chart Cycles
The second chart shows corn futures covering Feb 2009 through the current date in October 2009. The letters A and B mark the summer top and the harvest bottom. According the the MarketWarrior Dewey Cycle (Lock) indicator This market should make a top in late October or Early November. Then a bottom in late November to early December. Then move up to a top in mid to late January 2010. The red arrows on the chart below reflect the movements of the Dewey Cycle (Lock) indicator in the subgraph.
Corn Daily Chart Forecast
End
October 3, 2009
60 Min Yahoo! and the M.A.O.
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
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Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
All the previous posts in which I discussed the Moving Average Oscillator (MAO) used the daily chart examples. This method can work equally well on intraday charts. The chart below shows the 60 minute chart for Yahoo, symbol YHOO. On September 14, 2009 the MAO made a trough above zero. This pattern which sees the MAO make a bottom trough above zero indicates the market is in a string up trend. When this pattern forms a traders should look for a place to buy long the market. On the 60 minute chart below the Yahoo stock moved up for about 2 days after the signal at point A formed.
60 Min chart and the M.A.O.
End
October 2, 2009
Using the “Moving Average Oscillator” with Dell Stock
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
This post will discuss another example of the buy setup using the MarketWarrior indicator “Moving Average Oscillator”. This indicator oscillates above and below zero. When the market is showing a strong uptrend, the bottom of a trough will occur above zero. When you see a trough above zero you should look for the first opportunity to buy long the market. The chart below shows the daily chart for DELL. On this chart I have identified a trough that formed above zero. I have drawn an arrow from this trough to the price data. After point A the market rallied for about 1 month.
Dell and Moving Average Oscillator
End
October 1, 2009
Soybeans and the M.A.O.
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
This post will discuss the Globex soybean market and the MarketWarrior indicator Moving Average Oscillator (MAO). On the daily chart below, I have added the MAO. This chart shows the same type of buy signal I described in previous posts. When a market has a strong up trend, the MAO will form a trough above zero. This type of trough is a very strong sign. When you see this pattern in the indicator you should look for an opportunity to buy the market. At point A on the chart below, the market made a trough above zero and the the trend continued up.
Soybeans and M.A.O.
End
September 30, 2009
Finding Sell signals with the “Moving Average Oscillator”
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
Here is an example of the Moving Average Oscillator (MAO) that shows a sell signal. In previous posts I showed how to use this indicator to locate buy signals, now I will show how to locate sell signals. When a downtrend is strong the MAO will make a peak below zero. The chart below shows the daily Globex wheat symbol ZW. On this chart I have labeled a peak that is below zero with the letter A. This peak indicates the market is weak and you should look for an opportunity to sell short this market. Soon after this MAO peak below zero the trend continued down.
Globex Wheat and the MAO
end.
