nov 24
November 24, 2009
November 23, 2009
MarketWarrior Scanner and the Moving Average
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
The MarketWarrior new scanning feature works with data files on your hard drive. This includes text files or Metastock format data. Other data sources such as TC2007 or the real-time data sources will be added in future updates.
One valuable observation is that markets often make tops and bottoms against long-term moving averages such as the 100 bar or 200 bar moving average. In this example I will scan for the price to be on the 100 bar moving average. The MarketWarrior scanner allows you to add more than one copy of an indicator to a chart for the purpose of scanning. The picture below shows the scan control box for a chart to which I have added four copies of the indicator named “Moving Average(1 Line)”. All the indicators have been set up with the same 100 bar moving averages.
When the scan control box is opened, there will be a control for each of the four moving averages. This will allow us to scan for the price which would be on the moving average 0 Bars Back, -1 Bars Back, -2 Bars Back and -3 Bars Back. I have circled these settings on the scan controls below. If any of the past four bars are on the 100 bar moving average, this scan will find that market.
Moving Average Scan
The picture below shows the scan results. I set the controls to scan all the stocks in the NASDAQ 100. All the markets that are on the moving average are listed on the left side of the picture below. On this chart you can see the current price bar is on the moving average. All the markets indicated by the scan results would be watched for a change in trend over the next few bars because tops and bottoms often form on the market moving averages.
Scan Results
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November 22, 2009
MarketWarrior Scanner and the Pitchfork
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
MarketWarrior has a new scanning feature that works with data files on your hard drive. This includes text files or Metastock format data. One popular trading method is to swing trade as the price returns to the Median Line. Prices should return to the Median Line about 75% to 80% of the time. These percentage were worked out on the daily time frame and will be different on the intraday time frames. The picture below shows the scans available for the MarketWarrior Super-Pitchfork. The scan I have selected looks for markets in which the prices have not yet returned to the Median Line. This scan will allow you to quickly see the markets that are in a good position for swing trading.
Pitchfork Scanner
The picture below shows the scan results. I set the scanner to scan all the stocks in the NASDAQ 100. The markets which met the scan criteria are listed on the left side in the scan results. The chart below is showing the stock AMLN, Amylin Pharmacy. You can see in the picture below that the price has not yet returned to the most recent Median Line. If you are looking for markets to swing trade, this scan will be very helpful.
Pitchfork Scan Results
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November 21, 2009
The New MarketWarrior Scanner
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
MarketWarrior has a new scanning feature. The current version of the scanner in MarketWarrior build 385 will work with data files on your hard drive. This includes text files and Metastock format data. Other data sources will be added to the scanner in future version upgrades. The picture below shows the scanner control for the Gartley pattern. On the controls I have selected the Gartley Pattern and “All Patterns”. I have selected the scan to look through all the NASDAQ 100 stocks, but this is not shown in the example below.
Scan Controls
The picture below shows the scan results. All the symbols in the NASDAQ 100 which have a Gartley Pattern are listed on the left side in the scan results. The chart is showing the Bullish Butterfly pattern on the symbol CTXS Citrix Systems. This scanner will allow you to locate all the stock or commodities that have Gartley Patterns very quickly.
Scan Results
End
October 23, 2009
October 22, 2009 Trading the Mini-Dow
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
This is the last of three discussions about the Bollinger Bands stop and reverse method. This example covers October 22, 2009. The chart below is a 5 minute chart for the mini Dow, symbol YM. This is the 5 dollar per point mini Dow futures contract. Our charts use Barchart.com data so the time shown on the chart is central time from the Chicago exchange. We like to wait until 8:30AM when the main New York market opens and the volume on the mini Dow futures contract increases. On the chart below you can see there were six trades that occurred during the main trading hours.
Trading With Stop and Reverse
The trading statistics below show theoretical prices. The exact prices you get when trading will depend on how you are able to place orders with your broker. The statistic below show there were 4 losing trades and 2 winning trades. The total for the day was a profit of 27.659 points. The profit and loss pattern was again what we would expect from a stop and reverse indicator. There were several small losses and then larger winning trades.
Stop and Reverse Stats
End
October 22, 2009
Trading the Mini-Dow on Oct., 21 2009
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
Here is a second example of the Bollinger Bands stop and reverse indicator on the 5 minute chart for the mini Dow. The mini Dow usually uses the symbol YM. The two charts below show the 5 minute charts for October 21, 2009. During this trading day, there was a large profitable trade early in the morning then a series of small losing trades and finally an other large winning trade. When calculating these trades, I did not count the first large winning trade which you can see on the chart below. I did not include this winning trade because it started before the main trading day started at 8:30am central time. When trading this stop and reverse method, I usually make my first trade of the day the first new trade after the main trading session opens in New York. The mini-Dow futures contract has much greater trading volume after the main trading session in New York opens so I normally would start my trading after that market opens and the futures volume increases. You can see on this chart the trades 1 to 10 were all small choppy trades. The second chart shows the last trade of the day.
stop and reverse trading
After making 10 small choppy trades the market again did what it usually does after making a series of small trades; it had a breakout and a large trade. This is trade 11 on the chart below. In the last hour of trading, a large drop in the market made a large winning trade. The red line with an arrow at each end marks where I listed the exit price for this trade. I used a price where the market stabilized soon after the main New York market closed as the exit price.
stop and reverse chart
Below are the trading statistics for October 21, 2009. You can see this stop and reverse indicator had a series of small losses and then one large winning trade. The large winning trade was enough to make the total for the day profitable. The most difficult aspect of trading a stop and reverse method is working through the small losing trades so you are in the market to take advantage of the large winning trades when they occur.
trading stats
End
October 21, 2009
Trading the Mini-Dow on Oct., 20 2009
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
In this post and the next two posts I will be discussing the Bolllinger Bands stop and reverse indicator on the 5 minute chart for the mini-Dow. The symbol for this is YM but some brokers use their own in house symbol so check with your broker for the correct symbol before trading. This mini Dow is worth 5 dollars per point. The chart below shows the trading day from October 20, 2009. The normal way stop and reverse systems work over the long term is that they have a series of small losses and then a large win. On the chart below, you can see this pattern. The first trade of the day was a large winning trading. This was a short trade that profited around 60 Dow points. The reset of the day saw the other part of the pattern with a series of small losing trades. In the trading statistics below, you can see that the small losing trades were almost equal to the one large winning trading. This day ended with a small loss on the day. See the trading statistic in the second picture.
mini Dow Symbol YM
Below are the trading statistics for the Bollinger Stop and Reverse indicator for October 20, 2009. You can see the first trade of the day was very large at 60.096 and then the rest of the day saw a series of small losses.
mini Dow trading
End
October 20, 2009
Interest Rate Forecast Based on The Pitchfork
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
The chart below shows the interest rate futures contract named Eurodollars. This is not the euro currency. The electronic Globex symbol for the Eurodollar is the symbol GE. This daily chart shows a MarketWarrior “Super-Pitchfork” added to the chart. The Pitchfork requires 3 points to draw. The points are lettered A, B and C. The MarketWarrior Super-Pitchfork includes a “Pivot Zone”. On the chart below, the Pivot Zone is the purple box that starts from the letter C. The price should return to the Pitchfork Median Line before the end of the Pivot Zone. On this chart I have drawn 3 zig zag arrows that show the approximate location where I expect the price of the Eurodollar futures contract to return to the Median Line. This target price is approximately 97.55 in late November 2009.
Forecast based on the Super-Pitchfork
End
October 19, 2009
Corn Daily Cycles and Forecast
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
This year in 2009, the corn market has made a traditional seasonal pattern with a top in the summer during the growing season and and bottom around harvest time. The top came in June 2009 and the bottom came in September. I have set up the MarketWarrior indicator “Dewey Cycle (Lock)” to track the movements of this pattern as closely as possible. The first chart below is a daily chart for corn futures covering July 2008 through June 2009.
Corn Daily Chart Cycles
The second chart shows corn futures covering Feb 2009 through the current date in October 2009. The letters A and B mark the summer top and the harvest bottom. According the the MarketWarrior Dewey Cycle (Lock) indicator This market should make a top in late October or Early November. Then a bottom in late November to early December. Then move up to a top in mid to late January 2010. The red arrows on the chart below reflect the movements of the Dewey Cycle (Lock) indicator in the subgraph.
Corn Daily Chart Forecast
End
October 3, 2009
60 Min Yahoo! and the M.A.O.
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
All the previous posts in which I discussed the Moving Average Oscillator (MAO) used the daily chart examples. This method can work equally well on intraday charts. The chart below shows the 60 minute chart for Yahoo, symbol YHOO. On September 14, 2009 the MAO made a trough above zero. This pattern which sees the MAO make a bottom trough above zero indicates the market is in a string up trend. When this pattern forms a traders should look for a place to buy long the market. On the 60 minute chart below the Yahoo stock moved up for about 2 days after the signal at point A formed.
60 Min chart and the M.A.O.
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