Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2008 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
Here is a discussion of the Horoscope Index for 3M, symbol MMM. This example will use a daily chart. The Horoscope Index is calculated by comparing two horoscopes. This can be setup for a stock such as 3M in more than one way. In this example we are going to compare the incorporation horoscope for the New York Stock Exchange and the progressed incorporation horoscope for 3M. See the version of this article on the MarketWarrior owner’s page for the exact indicator settings used in this example.
When we use the Horoscope Index, we are looking for large fast move in the index which represent a change in the amount of energy affecting a market. On the first chart for 3M there are two such occurrences. The first one occurred in December 2007. The Horoscope Index made a large fast move up at this time. The start and end of this move represents a time window when we would be looking for a Change In Trend (CIT). On this chart you can see the 3M stock started a fast decline during this time window. The second occurrence of a large, fast move in the Horoscope index occurred in March 2008. On the chart below, you can see 3M did not make a CIT during this time window. Not every occurrence of a large fast move in the Horoscope Index will cause a CIT, but most will.
Horoscope Index 1
The next large fast move in the Horoscope Index for 3M was a decline that occurred in June and July of 2008. The fast drop in the Horoscope Index represents a significant change in the amount of energy affecting the 3M stock. During this time window a bottom occurred and an upward swing in 3M started.
Horoscope Index 2
The next major move in the Horoscope Index occurred in September 2008. At this time a large fast drop occurred in the Horoscope Index. The start and end of this move represent a time window for a CIT. Right after this time window a very fast drop in the 3M stock price occurred.
Horoscope Index 3
The final chart for 3M shows the next Horoscope Index time window in the future. This will occur in December 2008 and represents a time window where the energy affecting 3M will be changing. The Horoscope Index will make a fast move up and the start and end of this move represent the time window. At this time we should watch for a change in trend in the stock price of 3M.
Horoscope Index 4
end;
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2008 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
Here is a discussion of the Horoscope Index using Apple stock, symbol AAPL. This example will use a daily chart. The Horoscope Index is calculated by comparing two horoscopes. This can be setup for a stock such as Apple in more than one way. In this example we are going to compare the incorporation horoscope for the NASDAQ Exchange and the progressed incorporation horoscope for Apple. See the version of this article on the MarketWarrior owner’s page for the exact indicator settings used in this example.
When using the Horoscope index we are looking for times when the index makes a large fast move. This is usually identified by a move between the lower and upper boundary that occurs very fact. On the first chart for Apple, I have identified such as move in April 2007. The start and end of this fast move represents a time window when we would look for a Change In Trend (CIT). When these fast moves occur, it represents a change in the amount of energy affecting Apple stock. On the chart below, you can see that just after this large fast move in the Horoscope Index, Apple started a steady upward trend.
Horoscope Index 1
The second chart for Apple shows another example of a large fast move in the Horoscope Index that moved from the lower boundary to the top boundary in just a few days. This occurred in August 2007. The start and end of this move in the Horoscope Index represent a time window where we would watch for a CIT in Apple. On this chart you can see that just after this time window a strong up swing started in Apple.
Horoscope Index 2
The next example for Apple shows a large fast down move in the Horoscope Index that occurred in May 2008. The start and end of this move in the Horoscope Index represent a time when the amount of energy in Apple is changing and we would watch for a CIT. You can see on this chart, Apple started a down move during this time window.
Horoscope Index 3
The next chart for Apple show a large fast drop in the Horoscope Index in October 2008. The start and end of this drop in the Horoscope Index creates a time window for a CIT. You can see on this chart the market fell into this time window and the down trend stopped. The theory as to why this would happen is that the amount of energy affecting Apple stock changed as identified by the large fast move in the Horoscope Index.
Horoscope Index 4
The final chart for Apple shows the next large fast move in the Horoscope Index. This will occur in late April 2009. The start and end of this drop in the Horoscope Index identifies the time window for a CIT because the amount of energy affecting Apple will be changing at this time.
Horoscope Index 5
end.
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2008 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
Here is a discussion of the Horoscope Index using the stock Intel. This example will use a daily chart. The Horoscope Index is calculated by comparing two horoscopes. This can be setup for a stock such as Intel in more than one way. In this example we are going to compare the incorporation horoscope for the NASDAQ Exchange and the progressed incorporation horoscope for Intel. See the version of this article on the MarketWarrior owner’s page for the exact indicator settings used in this example.
When using the Horoscope Index, we are looking for the index to make a powerful move that would represent a change in the amount of energy in this market. On the first chart below, I have identified a strong upward move in the Horoscope Index, where the Horoscope Index has moved from below the lower boundary to above the upper boundary. The start and end of this strong up move represent a time window when the amount of energy affecting the Intel stock is changing. The chart below shows that just before this time window, in December 2007, the Intel stock started fast decline.
Horoscope Index 1
On the second chart below I am again identifying a large and fast move in the Horoscope Index. This time I have identified a fast move down in the index in March 2008. When the Horoscope Index makes a large and fast move we expect to see a Change In Trend (CIT) in the market because the amount of energy in the market is changing. On the chart below I have identified the time window for CIT based on the start and end of this decline in the Horoscope Index. During this time window the stock for Intel started a new upswing.
Horoscope Index 2
On the third chart below I have again identified a large fast up move in the Horoscope Index. The start and end of this move represent a time window when the amount of energy in this market is changing. This time window occurred in August 2008. Intel made a top just before this time window and started a strong downward move that is still ongoing.
Horoscope Index 3
The final chart for Intel show the next two time windows identified by the Horoscope Index. The next fast strong move in the Horoscope Index occurs in early December 2008. Then another fast strong move in the Horoscope Index occurs in late March 2009. These are the next two time windows where we would watch for a CIT because the amount of energy affecting Intel will be changing at these times.
Horoscope Index 4
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When a market starts to make an upward trend, there will be a first correction downward in the uptrend. The first correction in an uptrend can be used as a measuring swing to project the swing top price targets on the way up. The chart below shows a composite chart for Gold futures. I have drawn arrows on this chart identifying the top and bottom of what looks to be the first correction down in a new uptrend for bold. Using this swing I have drawn the price lines that mark equal size price moves upward from the top of this first correction swing. These price lines are maked with the word “Extension”. These prices levels are the price targets where we expect the price to reach. These are not price forecasts where tops should occur, there are prices targets. A price target is used as a minimum price level where you would place an order to automatically exit the market and take profits.
Price Targets
The chart below shows a composite chart for the interest rate Eurodollars, the pit symbol is ED and Globex symbols GE. In the interest rate markets the 200 day moving average has proven to be a major support and resistance level where tops and bottoms often occur. The chart below shows the 200 day moving average as a red line. The trend in this market is clearly up. The next downward correction should form a bottom on the 200 day moving average. This technique does not predict when the bottom will occur. When the price reaches the 200 day moving average in the future, we can view this as a buying opportunity.
Projection Prices
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Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2008 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
Here is a look at the S&P500 10 minute chart after the market closed. This can help us work out a trading strategy for the next day. On this chart the MarketWarrior indicator “Gartley Pattern” has found a pattern named “Bullish Butterfly”. On this chart I have manually drawn a reversal window around the end of this pattern. If this price completes this pattern and falls into this time window around the price 890 we would watch for a reversal. Ideally, when this pattern completes we want to see the market make a bottom in this reversal window and then move to a minimum price target at “B”.
Bullish Butterfly
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In this posting I am going to analyze the Gold/Silver index, symbol $XAU, after the market closed Nov 6, 2008. The chart below shows the 30 minute chart for $XAU. The first chart has three indicators. First is the MarketWarrior indicator “AT_Planet Lines Top Bottom” which draws planet lines that start from a market top or bottom. To learn about this indicator see the book
Gann’s Scientific Methods Unveiled: Volume 2 on the web page
http://www.mikulaforecasting.com/books/gsmuv2.htm This indicator is drawing an upward sloping Sun angle starting from the bottom on Oct 24.
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The second MarketWarrior indicator is named ”Square of 9 Chapter 2″. To learn more about this indicator, see the book,
The Definitive Guide to Forecasting Using W.D.Gann’s Square of Nine on the web page
http://www.mikulaforecasting.com/books/squareofnine.htm This indicator is drawing support and resistance lines.
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The third MarketWarrior indicator is named “Dewey Cycle (Lock)” and is drawing a forecast cycle in the subgraph. Using these three indicators, you can see the Sun angle cross the Square of 9 support price level at 77.00. When these two lines cross, it correlates with a bottom in the Dewey cycle forecast. On the chart below, I have drawn an oval to mark the price time target zone where this occurs and I would expect a bottom to be made.
XAU 30 minute Chart
On the next chart, I have added the MarketWarrior Swing Projector. When trading with the Swing Projector you need to watch for the Warning symbol which is the large red triangle with a B inside. This is labeled on the chart below. This warning symbol indicates all the conditions for a pivot bottom have been met. When the Warning symbol occurs you should start watching for any indication of a Change In Trend (CIT).
$XAU 30 Minute Chart
The final chart below, shows a closeup picture of this market analysis. The Dewey cycle forecast is making a bottom, the Swing Projector is showing the Warning symbol and the Sun angle and Square of 9 Chapter 2 indicators are crossing at 77.00. I expect this market to make a bottom in the price time target zone seen on the chart below.
Swing Projector and $XAU
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Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2008 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
A lot of commodity markets have been trending downward for over six months now. Here is a chart of the cotton. One very good way to trade a market that has a strong trend is to use a Stop and Reverse method but only trade in the direction of the trend. Applied to this chart is the MarketWarrior standard deviation stop and reverse indicator. The cotton market is moving down so we would watch the stop and reverse indicator for short selling signals. When the indicator signals a short sale at points A, B, C and D we would sell short. The exit would be triggered by the short stop. This would create 1 small profit trade, 2 small losing trades, and from point D a large profit trade.
Cotton Stop and Reverse
end.
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2008 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
In this posting I am going to discuss analyzing the Dow 30 industrial average using the eSignal symbol $INDU. All the charts below are 60 minute charts. On the first chart below, I have added the MarketWarrior indicator “High Low Reversal” and “Square of 9 Chapter 2″. The indicator High Low Reversal draws a dot above or below the price where the indicator believes a pivot will occur. The indicator Square of 9 Chapter 2 draws support and resistance price lines. On the chart below, on Nov 4, the price is forming a consolidation on a Square of 9 price line and the High Low Reversal has drawn a dot indicating a potential top. These two indicators are telling us this market may make a top soon.
Indiccator: High Low Reversal
On the next chart I have added the MarketWarrior Swing Projector. There are a few items of interest being drawn by the Swing Projector. First, there is a “Large Pivot Warning Symbol”. Second, there is a Warning Line. The Warning Line indicates the next top has a higher than normal probability of being a significant top for swing traders to sell short into the next down swing. The Large Pivot Warning Symbol indicates the conditions for a top have been met and a top may occur at any time. In this situation a swing trader would watch for the first indication of a downward Change In Trend (CIT) and would sell short.
Indicator: Swing Projector
On the third chart below I have added the two momentum indicators “Detrend Momentum” and “Smoothed Stochastic”. You can see both momentum indicators formed a lower top at P2 below P1. The price made a higher top at P2 than P1. This is an example of Bearish Divergence. The price is moving higher but the indicators are showing a loss of momentum. This indicates the price may make a top soon.
Indicator: Detrend Momentum
The final chart shows what happened on this 60 minute chart the next day Nov. 5. You can see all the indications of a market top were shown to be correct and the market fell making Nov 4 a swing top. The swing trader would have been watching the market Nov 5 for any signal the market was turning down and would have sold short into this down move.
$INDU Nov 5
end.
Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2008 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
Here is a Swing Projector Type #6 sell signal. The chart below is a daily chart for Apple Inc. This sell signal uses three indicators. First is the Swing Projector. Second a momentum indicator and in this case I am using the Stochastic of RSI. The third indicator is one of the planet line indicators. When selecting the planet line indicator and which planet to use you need to select an indicator and plant that has seen a Change In Trend (CIT) in the recent past. On the chart below, look at the label “Previous change in trend on the Mars line”. This label points to a top in August 2008 where the Apple Inc. made a top on the Mars Conjunction line. For this reason the indicator I have selected is the MarketWarrior “planet Lines by Aspect” indicator and the chart below shows the Mars Conjunction line and the Mars Sextile line. The sequence of events we are looking for with the Type #6 sell signal are described below.
1) First the momentum indicator should be very high, close to 100. Most momentum indicators move from 0 to 100. The represents a very over bought market.
2) The price should be on top one of the planet lines. The best situation is when the market is making a consolidation area on the planet line.
3) The Swing Projector should be making a large pivot warning symbol. This is the red triangle with the “T” inside that points down.
4) When all three of these items appear together you should watch for the first indication of the market turning down and sell short. If you are watching a stock which you can not sell short you can use this as an opportunity to exit any long position you have.
Type #6 Sell Signal
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