Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
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Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
The CRB index is a commodity index that reflects the prices of a basket of commodities. Recently the Uranus planet lines and the Gann Trend Oscillator (GTO) have done a fairly good job to identify pivots and swing trades. The chart below shows the daily chart for the CRB index symbol, $CRB. The 3 purple lines are Uranus planet lines. The red line is the GTO. Notice at points A, B, C ad D the market made a bottom or a top on the Uranus lines. The exact time to buy or sell would be when the GTO changes direction. For example at points A and C the market made a bottom on the Uranus line, then when the GTO turned up it would be time to buy long. At points B and D the market made a top on the Uranus line, so when the GTO turned down it would be time to sell short.
Uranus Planet Lines
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Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
In previous posts we have shown a planet index forecast for the 60 minute chart of the mini S&P500 ES. The days from Aug 24 to Aug 27 produced the most accurate period yet for this forecasting model. The chart below shows the 60 minute chart and the planet index forecast in the subchart. The vertical pivot lines drawn at the points where the planet index changes direction are used to forecast turning points. It is possible to use other parts of the planet index to forecast the market such as looking at the level of the high and low index values but normally I use only the pivot lines. On this chart every planet index pivot line correlated with a market turn. These are labeled A to H. You can easily see the turning point with which the planet index correlated.
Planet Index Forecast
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Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
On August 25, 2009 I found only one easy trade in the mini Dow symbol YM. Finding this trade involved a planet aspect between the moon and Uranus and a moon line. The chart below is a 5 minute chart for the mini Dow. The symbols on this chart identify the moon / Uranus aspect. Also notice the horizontal line labeled “moon”; this is a moon planet line. I am using Barchart.com data so the chart uses Chicago time or the central time zone. At 9:00AM the mini Dow made a top and started to fall. The price fell down to the moon line and stopped falling. Then 3 bars of sideways movement occured on the moon line as the price moved into the time of the moon / Uranus aspect. When the time of the aspect occurred, the price started moving upward. When the price formed the first bar up making a top around 9555, I could see the change in trend had occurred and it was time to buy long. The price then moved up for about 2 hours.
Trading a Planet Aspect
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Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
Here is the same stop and reverse indicator shown previously. This is based on the Bollinger bands. The chart below shows the 1 minute chart for the mini Dow, symbol YM. I tried to track the trades that occurred during the main trading session when the NYSE was open on August 24. I am using real-time data from Barchart.com which uses a time stamp from the Chicago exchanges for the symbol YM. So this is a Central Time chart. During August 24, there were 20 stop and reverse trades. The 5 price charts below show these 20 trades.
Chart #1 Trades For Aug 24
Chart #2 Trades For Aug 24
Chart #3 Trades For Aug 24
Chart #4 Trades For Aug 24
Chart #5 Trades For Aug 24
Below is a spreadsheet listing the trading statistics for August 24, 2009. The result for the day was a profit of 49.749 points. Each point is worth $5. The total dollar value of the profit for the day is $248.74. The entry and exit prices are theoretical. The exact prices you get will depend on how you are able to place stop and reverse trades with your broker.
Trading Stats for Aug 24
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Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
A lot of traders are interested in trading the mini gold contract YG. This contract often does not have enough trading activity to trade on the small time frames such as 1 minute and 5 minute. This is really not a problem because the same stop and reverse trading method that works on the short time frames also works on the longer term time frames such as the 60 minute chart. Below is a picture of the 60 minute chart for the mini golf YG. The stop and reverse indicators that work best in this market are based on the Keltner Bands. The three charts below show the stop and reverse trades that occurred in this gold market from August 10 to August 24. Over this time period, there were 20 stop and reverse trades which you can identify on the three charts below.
Chart #1 trades in mini Gold
Chart #2 trades in mini Gold
Chart #3 trades in mini Gold
The spreadsheet below lists the 20 trades from the above charts in order. Over this two week period there were 30.5971 points profit.. The minimum tick in this market is 0.1. Each tick is worth $3.32. There were 305.917 ticks in profits which are worth $1015.64. These are theoretical prices. The actual prices you will get in your trades depends on how you would enter the trades with your broker. This clearly shows that the MarketWarrior Keltner stop and reverse indicator can give very good signals in the mini gold market.
mini Gold trading stats
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Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
Here is an update on the planet index we are developing for the 60 minute chart for the mini S&P500, symbol ES. This planet index is performing very well forecasting many of the major pivots in the mini S&P500, 60 minute chart. The planet index does not catch every turn in this market but it does seem to forecast the major turning points. When the planet index makes a significant turn, the indicator marks this with a vertical line. These dotted vertical lines are what I use to locate turning points. On the first chart below, notice the planet index vertical pivot line was from 0 to 2 bars away from a market turn, at points A, B, C, D, E and F.
#1 Planet Index forecast for the mini S&P500
The next chart shows a 60 minute chart for the mini S&P500 through August 24. This chart shows the planet index forecasted market turning points at F, G, H, I and J. This planet index is proving to be just about the most accurate intraday forecaster that I have ever seen. Remember the planet index can be calculated far into the future.
#2 Planet Index forcast for the mini S&P500
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Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
It often takes an experienced eye to see pattern patches. I am going to show you a pattern that is occurring right now and can be used to forecast interest rate movements for September 2009. The two charts below show the interest rate futures contract Globex Eurodollar, symbol GE. On the first chart below, I have drawn a red box around some of the price bars and labeled it “Pattern”. To show you how an experienced eye can match patterns I have used an image editing program to make a copy of the pattern price bars and then flip then over. This is now labeled “Inverted Pattern”. I have placed the inverted pattern directly below the real pattern so you can line then up and see the flipped over inverted pattern.
Pattern Forecast part 1
Now on the second chart below, I have used an image editing program to move the inverted pattern to align with the current price data. The current price data is a very nice fit for this inverted pattern. The inverted pattern now extends into the future through September 2009. This type of pattern forecast is regularly done by experienced traders in their head. When you trade one market for many years you will begin to instantaneously see these types pattern matches.
Pattern Forecast part 2
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Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
One of my favorite indicators is the Mirror Cycle. The Mirror Cycle works on just about every time frame. Here is an example of the Mirror Cycle on the 60 minute chart for the mini Silver contract YI. Notice how the market price action repeated the price action that came just before it. This what the Mirror Cycle is showing. The Mirror Cycle is a reflection of the recent past. This process of repeating the recent past is a market phenomenon that occurs over and over on every time frame.
Silver Forecast
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Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
On August 18 there was a very good set up early in the day. About 20 minutes into the main trading day, the price of the mini Dow, symbol YM, fell down to the Mercury line and made a bottom at the time of a Sun Uranus aspect. So there were both a time and price which indicated a nice setup for a bottom. The time was the time of the aspect and the price was the price of the Mercury line. The chart below is using the Chicago exchange time which is Central time, not Eastern time. I did not buy long at the exact bottom, I waited for the market to break upward.
Aspects and planet lines and mini Dow YM
Almost the entire remainder of the trading day was spend moving sideways. The MarketWarrior indicator named “Stochastic Smoothed” was finding almost all the cycle tops and bottoms for the rest of the day. I am not showing the complete rest of the day but the picture below shows how the Stochastic Smoothed worked to find almost all the Change In Trend pivots for the rest of the day. I did not trade these cycle tops and bottoms, because after the initial trade and profit from the aspect setup described above I called it a day.
Finding cycle tops and bottoms in the mini Dow YM
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Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2009 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
A pattern that occurs often enough to keep an eye out for is the Gann Angles Over-Under pattern. This pattern starts when you draw a Gann angle up from a bottom. The price must stay above the Gann angle for a good number of bars. The exact number is not a fixed amount; the price should stay above the Gann angle for awhile. If the price breaks below the Gann angle only two to four bars after the starting bottom then the pattern is not forming.
After the price has been above the Gann angle for a while, it should fall below the Gann angle.
At this point the price should turn and make a top against the Gann angle. This is the important point in the pattern. When the price makes a top against the Gann angle at this point, it very often makes a reversal back down from the Gann angle.
Finally the price falls back from the Gann angle. The parts of this pattern are labeled on the picture below.
Gann Angle over-under pattern
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